“There is only a 13% chance that humanity will make it to 2100”
As our civilization continues to grow and technology continues to develop, threats also begin to emerge. For that reason, one mathematician believes there is only a 13% chance that humanity will not see the end of the 21st century.
The emergence of new weapons of mass destruction , the immense development of artificial intelligence and robotics. Social stratification , greed for money and power, as well as the exploitation of the planet and the excessive extraction of its resources.
These are some examples of why humanity probably has a 13% chance of not seeing the end of the 21st century.
Would humanity not see the end of the 21st century?
With the examples mentioned above, it should come as no surprise that scientists try to predict when the end of humanity will be . In fact, it seems that there is a kind of race within the scientific community to say the “scoop” of when the date of the possible destruction of the planet will be.
Doctor Fergus Simpson , a mathematician at the Institute of Cosmology at the University of Barcelona, has made his own calculations to estimate the risk of the human species disappearing.
His calculations are based on the Doomsday Argument , which states that the number of future members of the human species can be predicted given an estimate of the total number of humans born to date.
Simpson’s calculations showed that about 100 billion people have already been born. A similar number will be born in the future before humanity comes to an end.
The mathematician estimated that each year there is more than a 0.2% chance of a global catastrophe. And a 13% chance that humanity will not make it to the end of the 21st century.
minor chances
But the mathematician’s predictions also show great optimism compared to those of other researchers.
For example, British astronomer and cosmologist Martin Rees predicted that humans have only a 50% chance of surviving this century.
But Fergus Simpson believes that if humanity takes the urgently needed steps to avert global threats, there is hope . For him, it is possible to avoid certain events and minimize others. However, this only delays the final fate of life on Earth.
It’s not the first time we’ve heard a mathematical warning of this caliber: Is it possible that humanity can be saved? Perhaps the only hope is Stephen Hawking’s happiness before he dies: leaving the planet and looking for a new one.
