Contrary to what many believe, humans would end up attacking an alien species, not the other way around. This was revealed by journalist Jamie Carter , a specialist in science, technology and travel.
Some researchers claim that the behavior of humans towards other humans and nature shows that we are a hostile species. Therefore, they believe that in the future, if extraterrestrial contact is possible, it is more likely that humanity will be the first to attack.
The article’s author, Jamie Carter, offers a vision that almost no one has considered: Humans are more likely to attack an alien civilization than not.
Should we send messages into space in an attempt to contact advanced extraterrestrial civilizations? Or, maybe we should be afraid of being attacked?
These 2 questions are often contradictory, but most of the time, we miss something important. It is likely that we are the “hostile extraterrestrials”.
To learn more about this version, Carter contacted Alberto Caballero, author of an experimental paper. His work determines how many dangerous extraterrestrial civilizations might exist and how likely they are to invade us.
The number is surprisingly low. Extrapolating data on the history of invasions around the world over the last century, the military capability of the countries involved, and the global growth rate of energy consumption…there is a 0.0014% chance that the Earth be invaded by a technologically advanced civilization.
This number is based on the fact that the more advanced a civilization is, the less likely it is to attack again. After all, energy consumption is the method used to divide civilizations on the Kardashev scale.
Kardashev’s scale and why they wouldn’t attack us
On this scale, we find civilizations of type I: those able to exploit the main energy sources of their planet. In particular the energy coming from its star.
Type II civilizations are able to store all the energy released by their star. Most likely thanks to Dyson Spheres. Its energy consumption is 10 orders of magnitude greater than that of a Type I civilization.
Finally, the type 3 civilization, able to access and control much of the energy generated by the entire galaxy.
Wait. Why would technologically advanced Type 1/Type 2 civilizations that consume more energy be less likely to invade?
“Data from the last century shows that the frequency of invasions between countries has gradually decreased over time,” Caballero said.
“Based on this data, a civilization like humanity would be more likely to invade than a Type 1 civilization, but it would not have the means to travel to an alien planet. »
Caballero also believes that there have been no studies that estimate the prevalence of malevolent civilizations or the likelihood of alien invasion, hence his own effort. “It was not possible to weigh the potential benefits against the risks to send a serious message,” he said.
There will be no aliens attacking each other, at least for now. So why the fear of contact attempts (known as Extraterrestrial Intelligence Messaging or METI)?
“For the general public, the fear probably comes from all the decades of Hollywood movies about alien invasions,” Caballero said. Only in a very small number of films – like 2016’s Arrival – are alien invaders peaceful.
In other words… calm down, look up, and think of something you might want to say to another intelligent civilization thousands of light years away.